[Todos] Coloquios DF - Flavio Toxvaerd (Cambridge U.), MIÉRCOLES 5/4, 14hs, Aula Seminario, 2do piso, Pab. I

[Augusto Roncaglia]

Debido al paro general convocado para el día Jueves 6/4, esta semana se
mueve el coloquio para el día MIÉRCOLES 5/4.

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COLOQUIOS DEL DEPARTAMENTO DE F�SICA FCEYN - UBA


              En el Aula Seminario, 2do piso, Pab. I,

              MIÉRCOLES 5/4, 14hs:

              FLAVIO TOXVAERD

              University of Cambridge


*On the Management of Population Immunity*

This talk considers a susceptible-infected-recovered type model of an
infectious disease, such as swine flu, in which costly treatment or
vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once recovered,
individuals become immune and thus indirectly protect the remaining
susceptible, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. It is shown that
under decentralized decision making, infected individuals ignore the
externalities that their decisions have on susceptible individuals and thus
seek treatment or vaccination only if it is privately optimal to do so. In
contrast, a benevolent central planner who does take this externality into
account in choosing the level of aggregate treatment or vaccination, may
choose to either eradicate the disease or to retard its eventual
dissemination into the population. Optimal treatment is shown to involve
intervention at early stages of the epidemic. In contrast, optimal
vaccination defers intervention to later stages of the epidemic. Thus,
while treatment and vaccination have superficial similarities, their
effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic are radically
different.
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