[Todos] Fwd: [Docentesic] 15/8 Seminario Instituto de Cálculo | Prof Barnett

[Luciana Bruno]

Reenvio anuncio de seminario que puede ser de interes.

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Instituto de Calculo <secre.ic.fcen en gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Aug 12, 2022 at 3:06 PM
Subject: [Docentesic] 15/8 Seminario Instituto de Cálculo | Prof Barnett
To: <todos-dm en dm.uba.ar>, <todos en dc.uba.ar>, Docentes IC TODOS <
docentesic en ic.fcen.uba.ar>, <todos-interna en fcen.uba.ar>


Estimada/o:

Desde el Instituto de Cálculo queremos invitarte al seminario que dará
el Prof.
Arnold Barnett <https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/arnold-i-barnett>
el próximo miércoles 17 de agosto a las 13 hs en el aula 1208 del 0+
infinito.

El Prof. Barnett es profesor de estadística en el MIT y se encuentra de
visita en nuestro país. La charla es abierta a toda la comunidad.

Expositor: Prof. Arnold Barnett (MIT)

Título:  “Covid-19 Infection Risk on Domestic Airlines“

Día: Miércoles 17/8

Hora: 13 hs

Lugar: Aula 1208 - Pabellón 0 + Inf


¡Te esperamos!


Resumen:

Working with recent data and research findings, we estimate the probability
that an air traveler in economy class would have contracted Covid-19 on a
US domestic jet flight over the nine-month period June 2020 to February
2021.    The estimates take account of such variables  as rates of
confirmed Covid-19 infections in the US, flight duration, fraction of seats
occupied, and some demographic differences between US air travelers and US
citizens as a whole.    Based on point estimates, the risk of contracting
Covid-19 in-flight exceeded 1 in 1,000 on a fully-loaded two-hour flight at
the height of the pandemic, but was about 1 in 6,000 on a half-full flight
when the pandemic was at a low ebb.      However, these estimates are
subject to substantial uncertainty, with the 10th percentiles of various
risk distributions only about 1/7 as large as the medians, and the 90th
percentiles about four times as large.  Based on seat-occupancy levels on
US flights for each month over June 2020 to February 2021, the median risk
estimate for that period is 1 in 2250, while the mean risk estimate is 1 in
1450.        Indirect effects arose because those who contracted Covid-19
on US airplanes could in turn infect others.


*Secretaria Instituto de Cálculo*
*UBA - CONICET*



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